fix(benchmark): hard probes survive their own popularity
The router deliberately scores familiar text as less novel, so every benchmark run slightly burns the hard-prompt pool — with 3 templates per test a variant would drift below the high band within a handful of runs and flip the test red for no real reason. Two-part fix: pools doubled to 6 interdisciplinary families each (science: + quantum error correction, soil-carbon MRV, cryo-EM; ops: + ED triage + staffing, port berth/tides/rail, agri-drone fleets — all probed high against the live router), and a route-judged test that lands non-high gets ONE retry with a freshly generated template before failing. A single burnt wording no longer fails the assertion; a genuinely unreachable high tier still does.
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Vendored
+25
@@ -56,11 +56,17 @@ function hardPrompt(kind) {
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() => `Architect a protein-folding inference pipeline for a wet lab: ensemble MSA generation with taxonomy-aware subsampling, template selection under a ${n(30, 60)} percent identity ceiling, distributed attention across ${n(4, 16)} GPUs with activation checkpointing, confidence calibration against experimental B-factors, and an active-learning loop that decides which of ${n(300, 2000)} candidate mutants to synthesize next week.`,
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() => `Schedule observations for a network of ${n(8, 30)} robotic telescopes chasing gravitational-wave counterparts: probability skymaps updated every ${n(5, 20)} minutes, slew-time-aware target assignment with decaying rewards, cloud-cover forecasts folded in as stochastic availability, spectroscopy triggered only above a ${n(40, 85)} percent kilonova likelihood, and a plan to validate the scheduler against the one historical multi-messenger event.`,
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() => `Run a closed-loop materials-discovery campaign for solid-state electrolytes: DFT screening of ${n(2000, 9000)} candidates, Bayesian optimization driving ${n(3, 12)} parallel synthesis robots, CNN-based XRD phase identification, an ionic-conductivity target of ${n(2, 25)} mS/cm, and an explicit decision policy for when simulation is trusted over synthesis.`,
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() => `Design a surface-code error-correction pipeline for a ${n(400, 3000)}-qubit superconducting processor: choose a code distance for a logical error target of 1e-${n(9, 14)} at physical error rate 1e-3, syndrome extraction avoiding hook errors, a real-time decoder under a ${n(1, 4)} microsecond budget, and the classical co-processor layout with feedback for lattice surgery.`,
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() => `Design a monitoring-reporting-verification pipeline for soil-carbon credits across ${n(500, 5000)} farms: satellite spectral indices calibrated against ${n(800, 4000)} physical core samples, hierarchical Bayesian estimation with shrinkage, additionality argued against county-level counterfactuals, uncertainty discounts priced into issuance, and an audit sampling plan catching over-reporting with ${n(90, 99)} percent power.`,
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() => `Plan a cryo-EM structure-determination campaign for a ${n(300, 900)} kDa membrane complex: grid-screening strategy across ${n(4, 12)} detergent conditions, particle picking with a distilled transformer at ${n(2, 9)} million particles, ab-initio reconstruction ambiguity resolved by tilt-pair validation, local-resolution-aware model building, and a decision rule for when to stop collecting and publish.`,
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];
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const ops = [
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() => `Model a dengue outbreak across ${n(20, 90)} districts by coupling an SEIR compartment model to vaccine cold-chain optimization: transmission parameters estimated from noisy case counts with a particle filter, uncertainty propagated into weekly demand forecasts, refrigerated routing under a ${n(120, 400)}-dose-per-crate constraint, and a defended ethical weighting for which ${n(3, 12)} districts get priority when supply covers ${n(20, 60)} percent of demand.`,
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() => `Co-optimize a regional power grid's day-ahead market with a fleet of ${n(200, 2000)} grid-scale batteries: bid curves learned from ${n(2, 6)} years of price data, unit commitment as mixed-integer programming with ramp constraints, degradation amortized into marginal costs, N-1 contingency screening after every dispatch, and a mechanism-design argument that the bidding rules cannot be gamed by a coalition controlling ${n(10, 30)} percent of storage.`,
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() => `Couple regional climate downscaling at ${n(2, 12)} km resolution to catastrophe-bond pricing: bias-correct ${n(10, 40)} CMIP ensemble members, generate stochastic hurricane tracks, propagate landfall distributions into a portfolio of ${n(30, 200)} bonds, price the attachment probabilities, and defend the discount rate applied to century-scale tail risk.`,
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() => `Co-design a hospital emergency department's triage policy with its nurse staffing schedule: arrivals as a time-varying Poisson process fitted to ${n(2, 6)} years of data, acuity drift as a hidden Markov chain, staffing as integer programming over ${n(8, 12)}-hour shifts, a queueing bound on door-to-doctor time at the ${n(90, 99)}th percentile, and a fairness constraint preventing systematic delays for low-acuity elderly patients.`,
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() => `Optimize a container port's berth allocation jointly with tidal windows and rail departures: vessel ETAs with heavy-tailed uncertainty, berth-crane assignment as a mixed-integer program re-solved hourly, tide-constrained draft limits for the ${n(3, 8)} deepest berths, a queueing model of the truck gate coupled to city traffic, and a robustness argument for surviving a ${n(24, 72)}-hour crane outage.`,
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() => `Schedule observations for a fleet of ${n(6, 40)} agricultural drones across ${n(200, 2000)} fields: multispectral revisit deadlines driven by crop growth-stage models, battery-swap logistics as a vehicle-routing problem with time windows, rain forecasts as stochastic field availability, disease-outbreak alerts pre-empting the plan, and a proof the replanner never starves a field past its agronomic deadline.`,
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];
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return pick(kind === "science" ? science : ops)();
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}
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@@ -210,6 +216,25 @@ export async function renderBenchmark() {
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let ev;
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if (test.judge === "route") {
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// the test asserts the ROUTER's decision: did it rate this high?
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// One retry with a FRESH template: the router deliberately scores
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// familiar text lower (novelty), so a single burnt wording must
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// not fail the whole assertion.
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if (info.tier !== "high" && test.gen) {
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const p2 = hardPrompt(test.gen);
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try {
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const second = await testStream(
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{ model, messages: [{ role: "user", content: p2 }], temperature: 0, max_tokens: (test.max || 128) + 256 },
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() => {}
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);
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if (second.tier === "high") {
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info.tier = second.tier;
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info.selected_model = second.selected_model;
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info.task_label = second.task_label;
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info.route_source = second.route_source;
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info.cost_usd = (info.cost_usd || 0) + (second.cost_usd || 0);
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}
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} catch { /* keep first attempt */ }
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}
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ev = info.tier === "high"
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? { status: "pass", score: 1, note: "high ✓" }
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: { status: "fail", score: 0, note: (info.tier || "—") + " ≠ high" };
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