diff --git a/src/analysis/event_impact.py b/src/analysis/event_impact.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..45b0460
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/analysis/event_impact.py
@@ -0,0 +1,271 @@
+# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
+"""
+事件影响力分析：新闻/快讯 → 市场影响推断 → 个股推荐卡。
+LLM 只负责解读文本与推断方向；候选股必须落在真实行情快照内（grounding），
+购入区间基于真实现价计算，预计收益标注为推测。
+"""
+import json
+import sqlite3
+import traceback
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta
+
+import requests
+
+from src.analysis.llm_client import LlmClient, LlmError
+
+SYSTEM_PROMPT = """你是 A 股事件影响分析师。系统提供：若干条最新财经快讯/新闻、当日主力资金流入TOP10、\
+今日龙虎榜摘要、上证指数状态，以及全市场个股现价快照（部分）。
+任务：判断这些消息中是否包含值得关注的**事件**；若有，推断该事件对哪个品类（板块）的股票\
+产生什么方向的影响，并从"现价快照"给出的股票中选出最可能受益的标的。
+
+铁律：
+1. 只允许从系统提供的现价快照中选股票，禁止编造代码/名称。
+2. 证据必须引用所给新闻原文片段。
+3. 没有值得分析的事件时输出 has_event=false。
+4. 输出严格 JSON，无 markdown 代码块：
+{"has_event": true|false,
+ "event_summary": "≤80字事件摘要",
+ "direction": "利好|利空|中性",
+ "sectors": ["受影响板块", 最多3个],
+ "confidence": 0-100,
+ "reasoning": "≤150字影响传导逻辑",
+ "stocks": [{"name":"股票名","code":"6位代码","reason":"≤60字推荐理由",
+             "stars": 1到5的整数,
+             "expected_return_pct": 预计5日收益百分数(可为负),
+             "buy_zone_low": 建议购入区间下限, "buy_zone_high": 建议购入区间上限}]
+ stocks 最多 3 只；buy_zone 必须参考该股现价（快照中有 price 字段）。"""
+
+ANALYZE_COOLDOWN_S = 180
+MAX_NEWS_PER_RUN = 8
+
+
+class EventImpactService:
+
+    def __init__(self, emit, db_path):
+        self.emit = emit
+        self.db_path = str(db_path)
+        self.llm = LlmClient()
+        self.last_analyzed_at = None     # 只分析该时间之后的快讯
+        self.last_run = 0.0
+
+    def _conn(self):
+        return sqlite3.connect(self.db_path, check_same_thread=False)
+
+    def _ensure_tables(self, conn):
+        conn.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS event_impact (
+            id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+            ts TEXT NOT NULL,
+            event_summary TEXT NOT NULL,
+            direction TEXT,
+            sectors TEXT,
+            confidence INTEGER,
+            reasoning TEXT,
+            stocks TEXT,
+            evidence TEXT
+        )""")
+        conn.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS news_analyzed (
+            event_time TEXT NOT NULL,
+            content TEXT NOT NULL,
+            analyzed_at TEXT NOT NULL,
+            PRIMARY KEY (event_time, content)
+        )""")
+        conn.commit()
+
+    def has_new_news(self, conn) -> bool:
+        cutoff = (datetime.now() - timedelta(hours=3)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')
+        n = conn.execute(
+            "SELECT COUNT(*) FROM news_flash WHERE event_time >= ? AND event_time > COALESCE("
+            " (SELECT MAX(analyzed_at) FROM news_analyzed), '1970-01-01')", (cutoff,)).fetchone()[0]
+        return n > 0
+
+    def run_if_due(self):
+        """供采集循环调用：有新快讯且冷却结束才分析"""
+        import time as _t
+        if not self.llm.enabled:
+            return
+        now = _t.time()
+        if now - self.last_run < ANALYZE_COOLDOWN_S:
+            return
+        conn = self._conn()
+        try:
+            self._ensure_tables(conn)
+            if not self.has_new_news(conn):
+                return
+            self.last_run = now
+            self.analyze_latest(conn)
+        except LlmError as e:
+            self._emit('事件分析跳过', {'msg': str(e)[:120]})
+        except Exception as e:
+            traceback.print_exc()
+            self._emit('事件分析失败', {'msg': str(e)[:120]})
+        finally:
+            conn.close()
+
+    # ---------- 单次分析 ----------
+
+    def analyze_latest(self, conn):
+        news = conn.execute(
+            "SELECT event_time, content FROM news_flash "
+            "WHERE event_time >= datetime('now', '-6 hours') "
+            "ORDER BY event_time DESC LIMIT ?", (MAX_NEWS_PER_RUN,)).fetchall()
+        if not news:
+            return None
+        today = datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
+        top_flow = conn.execute(
+            "SELECT ts_code, ROUND(main_net_in/1e8,2) y FROM money_flow WHERE trade_date=? "
+            "ORDER BY main_net_in DESC LIMIT 8", (today,)).fetchall()
+        spot = self._market_snapshot()
+
+        evidence = [{'time': t, 'text': c[:160]} for t, c in news]
+        prompt_parts = ['## 最新快讯（原文）']
+        prompt_parts += ['[{}] {}'.format(t, c) for t, c in news]
+        prompt_parts.append('\n## 今日主力资金净流入 TOP8（亿元）')
+        prompt_parts += ['{}: +{}亿'.format(r[0], r[1]) for r in top_flow] or ['（无）']
+        prompt_parts.append('\n## 上证指数')
+        sh = conn.execute("SELECT trade_date, close FROM stock_daily WHERE ts_code='sh000001' "
+                          "ORDER BY trade_date DESC LIMIT 1").fetchone()
+        if sh:
+            prompt_parts.append('{} 收盘 {}'.format(sh[0], sh[1]))
+        prompt_parts.append('\n## 全市场个股现价快照（节选，只能从中选股）\n')
+        prompt_parts.append('代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 今日涨跌% | 主力净流入(亿)')
+        for code, price, pct, mflow in spot[:120]:
+            prompt_parts.append('{} | {:.2f} | {:.2f}% | {:.2f}亿'.format(code, price, pct, mflow))
+        user_prompt = '\n'.join(prompt_parts)
+
+        card = None
+        for attempt in range(2):
+            content = self.llm.chat(SYSTEM_PROMPT,
+                                    user_prompt + ('\n\n上一次输出不是合法 JSON，请重新输出。' if attempt else ''))
+            card = self._parse(content, spot_map=None)
+            if card:
+                break
+        if not card or not card.get('has_event'):
+            self._mark_analyzed(conn, news)
+            return None
+        self._mark_analyzed(conn, news)
+
+        card['stocks'] = self._verify_stocks(card.get('stocks') or [])
+        event = {
+            'ts': datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S'),
+            'kind': '事件影响分析',
+            'data': {
+                'event_summary': card.get('event_summary', ''),
+                'direction': card.get('direction', '中性'),
+                'sectors': card.get('sectors', []),
+                'confidence': card.get('confidence', 0),
+                'reasoning': card.get('reasoning', ''),
+                'stocks': card['stocks'],
+                'evidence': evidence,
+            },
+        }
+        self._save(conn, event)
+        self.emit(event)
+        return event
+
+    # ---------- grounding ----------
+
+    def _market_snapshot(self):
+        """全市场现价快照（新浪源，一次请求）：[(code, price, pct, main_net_in亿)]"""
+        import akshare as ak
+        df = ak.stock_zh_a_spot()
+        df.columns = [str(c) for c in df.columns]
+        out = []
+        flow = self._today_flow_map()
+        for _, r in df.iterrows():
+            raw = str(r.get('代码', ''))
+            code = raw[-6:] if raw else ''
+            if code[:2] not in ('60', '00', '30', '68'):   # 仅沪深A股
+                continue
+            try:
+                price = float(r.get('最新价'))
+            except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                continue
+            if price <= 0:
+                continue
+            out.append((code, price, float(r.get('涨跌幅') or 0), flow.get(code, 0.0)))
+        return out
+
+    def _today_flow_map(self):
+        today = datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
+        try:
+            return {code: round(v / 1e8, 2) for code, v in self._conn().execute(
+                "SELECT ts_code, main_net_in FROM money_flow WHERE trade_date=? AND main_net_in IS NOT NULL",
+                (today,))}
+        except sqlite3.Error:
+            return {}
+
+    def _verify_stocks(self, stocks):
+        """校验 LLM 选出的股票必须存在于真实快照；购入区间以真实现价重算"""
+        spot = {code: (price, pct, flow) for code, price, pct, flow in self._market_snapshot()}
+        verified = []
+        for s in stocks[:5]:
+            code = str(s.get('code', '')).zfill(6)[:6]
+            if code not in spot:
+                continue
+            price, pct, flow = spot[code]
+            try:
+                lo = float(s.get('buy_zone_low', price * 0.99))
+                hi = float(s.get('buy_zone_high', price * 1.01))
+            except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                lo, hi = price * 0.99, price * 1.01
+            lo, hi = min(lo, hi), max(lo, hi)
+            try:
+                er = max(-15.0, min(15.0, float(s.get('expected_return_pct', 0))))
+            except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                er = 0.0
+            try:
+                stars = max(1, min(5, int(s.get('stars', 3))))
+            except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                stars = 3
+            verified.append({
+                'name': s.get('name', ''), 'code': code,
+                'price': round(price, 2), 'pct_today': round(pct, 2),
+                'main_net_in_yi': round(flow, 2),
+                'buy_zone': [round(lo, 2), round(hi, 2)],
+                'expected_return_pct': er, 'stars': stars,
+                'reason': s.get('reason', ''),
+            })
+        verified.sort(key=lambda x: -x['stars'])
+        return verified
+
+    def _save(self, conn, event):
+        conn.execute(
+            "INSERT INTO event_impact(ts,event_summary,direction,sectors,confidence,"
+            "reasoning,stocks,evidence) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)",
+            (event['ts'], event['data']['event_summary'], event['data']['direction'],
+             json.dumps(event['data'].get('sectors', []), ensure_ascii=False),
+             event['data']['confidence'], event['data']['reasoning'],
+             json.dumps(event['data']['stocks'], ensure_ascii=False),
+             json.dumps(event['data'].get('evidence', []), ensure_ascii=False)))
+        conn.commit()
+
+    def _mark_analyzed(self, conn, news):
+        now = datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')
+        conn.executemany("INSERT OR REPLACE INTO news_analyzed(event_time,content,analyzed_at) "
+                         "VALUES (?,?,?)", [(t, c, now) for t, c in news])
+        conn.commit()
+
+    def _parse(self, content, spot_map=None):
+        import re
+        m = re.search(r'\{.*\}', content, re.S)
+        if not m:
+            return None
+        try:
+            return json.loads(m.group(0))
+        except json.JSONDecodeError:
+            return None
+
+    def history(self, limit=20):
+        conn = self._conn()
+        rows = conn.execute("SELECT ts,event_summary,direction,sectors,confidence,stocks,evidence "
+                            "FROM event_impact ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT ?", (limit,)).fetchall()
+        conn.close()
+        out = []
+        for ts, summary, direction, sectors, conf, stocks, evidence in rows:
+            out.append({'ts': ts, 'kind': '事件影响分析',
+                        'data': {'event_summary': summary, 'direction': direction,
+                                 'sectors': json.loads(sectors or '[]'),
+                                 'stocks': json.loads(stocks or '[]'),
+                                 'evidence': json.loads(evidence or '[]'),
+                                 'confidence': conf}})
+        return out
diff --git a/src/analysis/llm_client.py b/src/analysis/llm_client.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..47a8abf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/analysis/llm_client.py
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
+"""
+LLM 客户端（OpenAI 兼容 /chat/completions）。
+- base_url / model / key 由环境变量配置（默认智谱 GLM）
+- 出站安全：仅 http/https、显式拒绝 localhost、解析 IP 拒绝环回/私有/保留段、
+  禁用重定向（防 DNS rebinding 绕过），值全部走 JSON 序列化，密钥不落日志
+"""
+import ipaddress
+import json
+import os
+from urllib.parse import urlparse
+
+import requests
+
+
+class LlmError(Exception):
+    pass
+
+
+def _validated_url(base_url: str) -> str:
+    u = urlparse(base_url)
+    if u.scheme not in ('http', 'https'):
+        raise LlmError('LLM base_url 仅允许 http/https')
+    host = u.hostname or ''
+    if not host or host.lower() in ('localhost', 'localhost.localdomain'):
+        raise LlmError('LLM base_url 拒绝 localhost')
+    port = u.port or (443 if u.scheme == 'https' else 80)
+    try:
+        infos = socket.getaddrinfo(host, port)
+    except socket.gaierror as e:
+        raise LlmError('LLM base_url 域名解析失败: {}'.format(host))
+    for info in infos:
+        ip = ipaddress.ip_address(info[4][0])
+        if (ip.is_loopback or ip.is_private or ip.is_link_local or ip.is_reserved
+                or ip.is_multicast or ip.is_unspecified):
+            raise LlmError('LLM base_url 拒绝非公网地址: {}'.format(ip))
+    return '{}://{}{}'.format(u.scheme, u.netloc, u.path)
+
+
+class LlmClient:
+
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.api_key = os.environ.get('JQUANT_LLM_API_KEY', '').strip()
+        self.base_url = (os.environ.get('JQUANT_LLM_BASE_URL', '').strip()
+                         or 'https://open.bigmodel.cn/api/paas/v4')
+        self.model = os.environ.get('JQUANT_LLM_MODEL', '').strip() or 'glm-4-flash'
+        self.temperature = float(os.environ.get('JQUANT_LLM_TEMPERATURE', '0.2'))
+
+    @property
+    def enabled(self) -> bool:
+        return bool(self.api_key)
+
+    def chat(self, system_prompt: str, user_prompt: str) -> str:
+        if not self.enabled:
+            raise LlmError('未配置 LLM API Key（JQUANT_LLM_API_KEY），请在服务环境变量中设置')
+        url = _validated_url(self.base_url.rstrip('/')) + '/chat/completions'
+        body = {
+            'model': self.model,
+            'temperature': self.temperature,
+            'messages': [
+                {'role': 'system', 'content': system_prompt},
+                {'role': 'user', 'content': user_prompt},
+            ],
+        }
+        # 校验与请求紧邻；禁重定向防 DNS rebinding 绕过 IP 校验
+        r = requests.post(url, json=body, timeout=90, allow_redirects=False,
+                          headers={'Authorization': 'Bearer ' + self.api_key,
+                                   'Content-Type': 'application/json'})
+        if r.status_code in (301, 302, 303, 307, 308):
+            raise LlmError('LLM 端点发生重定向，已拒绝（防 SSRF 绕过）')
+        if r.status_code != 200:
+            raise LlmError('LLM HTTP {}: {}'.format(r.status_code, r.text[:200]))
+        content = r.json().get('choices', [{}])[0].get('message', {}).get('content')
+        if not content:
+            raise LlmError('LLM 响应缺少 content')
+        return content
diff --git a/src/realtime/collector.py b/src/realtime/collector.py
index b263907..2332444 100644
--- a/src/realtime/collector.py
+++ b/src/realtime/collector.py
@@ -45,6 +45,8 @@ class TimelineCollector:
         FEED.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)   # 事件流水目录
         self.priors = {}
         self._load_priors()
+        from src.analysis.event_impact import EventImpactService
+        self.impact = EventImpactService(emit=self.emit, db_path=self.db_path)
 
     # ---------- 基础 ----------
 
@@ -177,7 +179,7 @@ class TimelineCollector:
                     conn.execute(
                         "INSERT INTO news_flash(content, event_time, source, inserted_at) "
                         "VALUES (?,?,?,datetime('now','localtime'))", (summary, ts, '东财7x24'))
-                    fresh.append((ts, summary[:60]))
+                    fresh.append((ts, summary[:200]))
             conn.commit()
         except Exception as e:
             self._emit('采集错误', {'msg': str(e)[:120]})
@@ -236,6 +238,7 @@ class TimelineCollector:
                     self._emit('盘中点位', {'上证': spot['price'], '涨跌幅%': spot['pct']})
                 for h in self.news_alerts(conn):
                     self._emit('快讯关键词告警', h)
+                self.impact.run_if_due()
 
             if hm >= 1510 and not self.state.get('postmarket_done'):
                 n = self.save_lhb_today(conn)
diff --git a/src/web/index.html b/src/web/index.html
index 85e9a84..8a57bb8 100644
--- a/src/web/index.html
+++ b/src/web/index.html
@@ -49,6 +49,16 @@
   .k.盘前隔夜预估, .k.收盘日报 { color: var(--down); }
   .d { flex: 1; word-break: break-all; color: #c3cad8; }
   .empty { text-align: center; color: var(--text2); padding: 40px 0; }
+  .impact { margin-top: 8px; border-top: 1px dashed var(--border); padding-top: 8px; }
+  .impact table { width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse; font-size: 12px; }
+  .impact th { color: var(--text2); text-align: left; padding: 3px 8px; font-weight: 600; }
+  .impact td { padding: 4px 8px; border-top: 1px solid var(--border); font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; }
+  .stars { color: #ffb74d; letter-spacing: 1px; }
+  .dir-bull { color: var(--up); font-weight: 700; }
+  .dir-bear { color: var(--down); font-weight: 700; }
+  .dir-neutral { color: var(--text2); }
+  .conf { font-size: 11px; color: var(--text2); }
+  .disclaimer { margin-top: 6px; font-size: 11px; color: #6b7280; }
 </style>
 </head>
 <body>
@@ -65,6 +75,7 @@
     <button data-f="快讯关键词告警">告警</button>
     <button data-f="盘前隔夜预估">盘前预估</button>
     <button data-f="收盘日报">日报</button>
+    <button data-f="事件影响分析">事件影响</button>
   </div>
   <ul id="feed"><li class="empty">等待服务端推送…</li></ul>
 </main>
@@ -75,14 +86,41 @@ const buf = document.getElementById('buf')
 let filter = ''
 let ws, retryTimer
 
+function esc(s) { return String(s ?? '').replace(/[<>&]/g, '') }
+
+function impactCard(d) {
+  if (!d || !d.stocks || !d.stocks.length) return ''
+  const dirCls = { '利好': 'dir-bull', '利空': 'dir-bear' }[d.direction] || 'dir-neutral'
+  const rows = d.stocks.map(s =>
+    `<tr><td>${esc(s.name)}</td><td>${esc(s.code)}</td>` +
+    `<td>${s.buy_zone[0]} ~ ${s.buy_zone[1]}</td>` +
+    `<td class="${s.expected_return_pct > 0 ? 'up' : s.expected_return_pct < 0 ? 'down' : ''}">${s.expected_return_pct > 0 ? '+' : ''}${s.expected_return_pct}%</td>` +
+    `<td class="stars">${'★'.repeat(s.stars)}${'☆'.repeat(5 - s.stars)}</td>` +
+    `<td>${esc(s.reason)}</td></tr>`).join('')
+  return `<div class="impact"><table>` +
+    `<tr><th>标的</th><th>代码</th><th>建议购入区间</th><th>预计收益(5日,推测)</th><th>推荐指数</th><th>简易原因</th></tr>${rows}</table>` +
+    `<div class="disclaimer">⚠ 模型推断仅供参考，预计收益为推测值，不构成投资建议；置信度 ${d.confidence ?? '-'}%</div></div>`
+}
+
 function render(e, fresh) {
   if (filter && e.kind !== filter) return
   const empty = feed.querySelector('.empty')
   if (empty) empty.remove()
   const li = document.createElement('li')
   li.className = 'evt' + (fresh ? ' fresh' : '')
-  const d = typeof e.data === 'object' ? JSON.stringify(e.data) : (e.data ?? '')
-  li.innerHTML = `<span class="t">${e.ts}</span><span class="k ${e.kind}">${e.kind}</span><span class="d">${d.replace(/[<>&]/g, '')}</span>`
+  const d = e.data || {}
+  if (e.kind === '事件影响分析') {
+    const dirCls = { '利好': 'dir-bull', '利空': 'dir-bear', '中性': 'dir-neutral' }[d.direction] || ''
+    const sectors = (d.sectors || []).map(s => `<span class="stars">${esc(s)}</span>`).join(' / ')
+    li.innerHTML = `<span class="t">${e.ts}</span>` +
+      `<span class="k ${e.kind}">事件影响</span>` +
+      `<span class="d"><b>${esc(d.event_summary)}</b><br>` +
+      `方向：<span class="${dirCls}">${esc(d.direction)}</span> ｜ 板块：${sectors || '—'} ｜ 置信度 ${d.confidence ?? '-'}%<br>` +
+      `${esc(d.reasoning || '')}${impactCard(d)}</span>`
+  } else {
+    const txt = typeof d === 'object' ? JSON.stringify(d) : String(d)
+    li.innerHTML = `<span class="t">${e.ts}</span><span class="k ${e.kind}">${e.kind}</span><span class="d">${esc(txt)}</span>`
+  }
   feed.prepend(li)
   while (feed.children.length > 300) feed.lastChild.remove()
 }
diff --git a/src/web/server.py b/src/web/server.py
index 7d44108..f8a4b43 100644
--- a/src/web/server.py
+++ b/src/web/server.py
@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import sys
 sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent.parent))
 
 from src.realtime.collector import TimelineCollector   # noqa: E402
+from src.analysis.event_impact import EventImpactService   # noqa: E402
 
 PORT = int(os.environ.get('PORT', '8100'))
 ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent.parent
@@ -57,6 +58,7 @@ async def collector_task(_app):
             await asyncio.sleep(60)
 
     task = asyncio.create_task(poll())
+    _app['impact'] = collector.impact
     # 启动即推最近历史（从 jsonl 恢复）
     feed = ROOT / 'data' / 'realtime_feed.jsonl'
     if feed.exists():
@@ -81,6 +83,11 @@ async def recent_events(_request):
     return web.json_response({'events': list(recent)})
 
 
+async def impact_history(_request):
+    collector = _request.app['impact']
+    return web.json_response({'events': collector.history(20)})
+
+
 async def stats(_request):
     return web.json_response({'clients': len(clients), 'buffered': len(recent)})
 
@@ -106,6 +113,7 @@ def build_app():
     app.router.add_get('/', index)
     app.router.add_get('/api/recent', recent_events)
     app.router.add_get('/api/stats', stats)
+    app.router.add_get('/api/impact', impact_history)
     app.router.add_get('/ws', ws_handler)
     app.cleanup_ctx.append(collector_task)
     return app